China’s exports have surged by 12.4% in March 2025, surpassing expectations despite ongoing trade tensions with the United States. The data, released by Beijing’s General Administration of Customs, reveals a sharp rise in overseas shipments compared to a forecasted 4.6% increase.
The trade statistics highlight a robust performance in the face of escalating tariffs between the two economic giants. The US, under former President Donald Trump, imposed a sweeping series of tariffs on Chinese imports in an effort to address trade imbalances. These tariffs have led to a significant tit-for-tat situation, with US levies on Chinese goods reaching as high as 145%, while Beijing retaliated with its own 125% tariff on American products.
Despite these punitive measures, China’s exports have maintained growth momentum, particularly in March. The surge is attributed to businesses accelerating shipments ahead of an impending escalation in US tariffs scheduled for April 2025. This frontloading of trade has been a strategic move to avoid the upcoming tariff hikes, which analysts predict will put pressure on future trade volumes.
The United States remains China’s largest trading partner, accounting for $115.6 billion in exports from January to March. Specifically, in March, China’s exports to the US grew by 9% year-on-year, even as the second round of tariffs was enforced.
While China’s export performance in March was stronger than anticipated, experts caution that this growth is likely temporary. Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that the export surge could be a short-term phenomenon driven by pre-emptive trade activity ahead of the new tariffs. Zhang warned that exports may decline in the coming months as the tariffs continue to escalate, further straining China’s trade position.
The Chinese economy, which is still recovering from sluggish domestic consumption and a prolonged debt crisis in its property sector, faces ongoing challenges. Last year, Beijing introduced aggressive measures to stimulate growth, including interest rate cuts, deregulation of the property market, and increased support for local government spending. Despite these efforts, optimism about sustained economic recovery remains tempered, as the government has yet to provide a clear, specific stimulus plan.
In addition to the looming tariff conflict, Beijing is also grappling with broader structural issues, including a slow recovery in consumer spending and concerns over financial stability. Experts are divided on how soon China will regain pre-crisis export levels, with some predicting it may take years for the economy to fully recover.
As the global economy navigates these turbulent trade waters, the ongoing China-US trade war remains one of the most closely watched geopolitical and economic issues. While some relief came from the US’s recent decision to grant tariff exemptions for products like smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors, many analysts remain cautious about the long-term stability of China’s export-driven growth model.