Thailand has revised its 2025 economic forecast downward due to growing uncertainty over trade tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, senior officials announced on Monday.
The country is facing a potential 36% tariff under Washington’s proposed global “reciprocal” trade measures, unless a reduction is reached by July.
According to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), Thailand’s economy grew by 3.1% year-on-year in the first quarter. However, the agency has adjusted its full-year growth projection to a range of 1.3% to 2.3%, down from the previous forecast of 2.3% to 3.3%.
Danucha Pichayanan, Secretary-General of the NESDC, attributed the downgrade to uncertainty surrounding the tariff talks and a forecasted decline in tourism.
“The trade negotiations remain unresolved, and several countries are still waiting their turn at the table,” Danucha said during a press briefing. He added that second-quarter growth was expected to be sluggish, as private sector investment is being postponed until there is more clarity on trade outcomes.
The government also revised its 2025 tourist arrival forecast, lowering it from 38 million to 37 million, citing a decline in Chinese visitor numbers during the first quarter.