The decision by former President Donald Trump’s administration to slash the majority of US foreign aid funding is projected to cause more than 14 million preventable deaths by 2030, a new study published in The Lancet medical journal reveals.
According to the report, nearly a third of those at risk of early death due to these cuts are children. Researchers emphasize that the drastic reduction in aid, which amounts to an 83% decrease in US Agency for International Development (USAID) funding, would undermine decades of progress in global health.
In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the Trump administration had canceled over 80% of USAID’s programs. Davide Rasella, a researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health and co-author of the report, described the cuts as potentially comparable to a global pandemic or major armed conflict in terms of their impact on vulnerable populations. “The resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” Rasella said in a statement.
USAID has long been a cornerstone of humanitarian aid, particularly in developing countries. Between 2001 and 2021, USAID’s funding was credited with preventing an estimated 91 million deaths. However, with the Trump administration cutting aid to such an extreme degree, the study’s authors project that more than 14 million deaths could occur by 2030 as a direct consequence of these cuts. This includes over 4.5 million children under five, or about 700,000 child deaths per year.
The report’s findings come amid a critical United Nations-led aid conference in Seville, Spain, which is expected to address the worsening global humanitarian crisis.
While the US remains the largest provider of humanitarian aid globally, operating in over 60 countries, the Trump administration’s cost-cutting initiatives led to a reevaluation of USAID’s role. Although approximately 1,000 remaining programs are set to be administered through the US State Department, the impact on the ground has been severe, as evidenced by a recent report from UN workers.
In Kenya, a UN official told the BBC that food rations in refugee camps had been slashed to their lowest ever levels, causing widespread malnutrition and starvation. A baby in Kakuma, northwestern Kenya, was reportedly showing severe signs of malnutrition, including skin wrinkling and peeling.
The Trump administration’s agenda, which included massive budget cuts and the elimination of many foreign aid programs, has been linked to a broader ideological shift in US governance under the leadership of figures like Elon Musk. Critics argue that USAID’s focus on liberal projects has been a key target for reduction.
As the debate over foreign aid continues, global health advocates are calling for urgent action to prevent further setbacks in the fight against poverty and disease.