In its newly released 2025 World Oil Outlook, OPEC projects that global oil demand will climb steadily, reaching nearly 123 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2050—a significant increase of 19.2 mb/d from 2024 levels.
The growth is expected to be driven almost entirely by non-OECD (developing) countries, where demand is forecast to surge by 27.7 mb/d over the outlook period. Key contributors include India, which is expected to see oil demand more than double—from 5.6 mb/d in 2024 to 13.7 mb/d by 2050—marking a rise of 8.2 mb/d. Other growth engines include Other Asia (+5.3 mb/d), China (+1.8 mb/d), the Middle East (+4.7 mb/d), and Africa (+4.2 mb/d).
In contrast, oil demand in OECD (developed) countries is projected to fall sharply, decreasing by 8.5 mb/d from 45.7 mb/d in 2024 to 37.2 mb/d in 2050. The drop is most pronounced in the OECD Americas and Europe, reflecting ongoing energy transitions, policy shifts, and advances in energy efficiency and alternative fuels.
The diverging trends underscore a global energy landscape in transformation—where growth in emerging economies is balanced by a structural decline in mature markets.
OPEC’s outlook reaffirms the enduring role of oil in the global energy mix, even amid rising calls for decarbonization and net-zero targets.
Total world oil demand is set to reach:
• 103.7 mb/d in 2024
• 113.3 mb/d by 2030
• 122.9 mb/d by 2050
The report highlights the need for continued investment in upstream capacity to meet growing demand, particularly in non-OECD regions, while also emphasizing the importance of sustainable development pathways.
