International credit rating firm Fitch Ratings has issued a warning that the ongoing Mpox outbreak may adversely affect the economic stability of African nations and strain their fiscal positions. According to a commentary released on Wednesday, Fitch highlighted concerns that a rapid increase in Mpox cases in sub-Saharan Africa could undermine economic activity and fiscal metrics, exacerbating the suffering of affected populations.
The warning comes as the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention reported 40 confirmed Mpox cases out of 830 suspected cases nationwide. Additionally, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention declared Mpox a continental security public health emergency on August 13.
Fitch noted that although confirmed cases in most Fitch-rated sub-Saharan African countries, including Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Uganda, were relatively low, there were fears of underreporting in some regions. The firm drew parallels with past health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ebola epidemic, which had significant economic and fiscal repercussions.
The potential economic impacts of the Mpox outbreak could include declines in consumption, production, and tourism—particularly in countries like Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda where tourism is a significant economic contributor. Additionally, disruptions in food production and logistics might lead to inflationary pressures.
Fitch acknowledged that international assistance could alleviate some of the fiscal strain, though the timing and amount of such support remain uncertain. The firm referenced the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak, where international grants were substantial but still led to widened budget deficits.
In a related development, the United States has donated 10,000 doses of the Jynneos vaccine to Nigeria. This vaccine, approved by the Food and Drug Administration, is intended for the prevention of smallpox and Mpox in adults at risk of infection.
Mpox, a rare zoonotic disease, is typically found in remote areas of Central and West Africa. This year, over 15,000 suspected cases have been reported across 12 African countries, with more than 3,500 confirmed cases and 26 deaths.