Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo says opposition leader Peter Obi will struggle to gain significant votes in northern Nigeria in the 2027 presidential election, arguing that President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) already have deep-rooted political structures in the region.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics, Keyamo dismissed the strength of the opposition coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which has been championed by Atiku Abubakar, Obi, and other political heavyweights. “They are going nowhere in terms of demography,” he said. “The numbers are not looking good for them.”
Keyamo claimed Obi’s 2023 performance was largely driven by three demographic factors that, in his view, will not align in 2027: his status as the only major Christian candidate; strong ethnic support from the South-East; and backing from young, disenchanted voters. He argued that if Obi were paired with Atiku in a joint ticket, these advantages would diminish, particularly in the North, where the APC maintains “strong structures” and loyal governors.
The comments come amid heightened political manoeuvring ahead of 2027. The opposition coalition — which includes Atiku, Obi, ex-Senate president David Mark, former ministers Rauf Aregbesola and Rotimi Amaechi, and ex-Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai — is seeking to unseat Tinubu, who is pursuing a second term.
The coalition hopes to capitalise on the combined 12 million votes Obi and Atiku secured in 2023 — over four million more than Tinubu’s tally. However, Keyamo insists that demographics and entrenched political networks favour the incumbent.
If you’d like, I can also prepare a side-by-side 2023 vs. projected 2027 voting bloc analysis so you can see whether Keyamo’s argument holds up mathematically.
Do you want me to do that?
