Nigeria is positioning itself to raise crude oil production to 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2026, the Federal Government announced Thursday, outlining reforms aimed at unlocking deepwater reserves, reviving dormant oil fields, and expediting approvals for new projects.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) confirmed the target during the 2025 PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit in Abuja. NUPRC Chief Executive Gbenga Komolafe said the strategy is already yielding results, with production climbing from a baseline of 1.46mbpd in October 2024 to 1.8mbpd today.
“With this momentum, we are firmly on track to reach our 2.5 million barrels per day target by 2026,” Komolafe declared.
Reforms Reshaping Nigeria’s Oil Sector
Komolafe pointed to reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and recent presidential executive orders as game-changers, cutting the average contracting cycle from 36 months to six months and offering investors more competitive fiscal terms.
He disclosed that the commission is driving a “one million barrels per day initiative” to boost incremental production. Central to this is a cluster and nodal development strategy that leverages shared infrastructure and ties into floating production storage and offloading units (FPSOs) such as Bonga, Egina, and Agbami.
At a recent deepwater technical workshop, operators, service companies, and policymakers agreed on a roadmap to unlock more than 810,000 barrels per day in potential peak output from approved offshore projects.
Energy Transition and Nigeria’s Gas Pathway
Komolafe acknowledged the global push toward renewable energy, noting that investments in low-carbon projects surpassed fossil fuels for the first time in 2023 and rose further in 2024. Still, he argued hydrocarbons would remain indispensable to meeting global demand, particularly across Africa and Asia.
“Nigeria is not ignoring climate concerns,” he said. “But our pathway will be gas-centric decarbonisation.”
Marginal Field Licenses Under Review
On marginal oil fields, Komolafe confirmed that the NUPRC has completed a case-by-case review of licenses due for renewal. He emphasized that renewals will be merit-based, following a transparent technical assessment aligned with the Petroleum Industry Act.
“It doesn’t necessarily mean that all awardees should meet their terms at the same time,” he explained. “The Act makes it clear that milestones are assessed progressively. An expert team reviewed each field transparently, and the results have been submitted to the Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil) for approval.”
Successful companies that meet the required milestones, he added, are expected to receive license renewals “in the weeks ahead.”
What It Means for Nigeria
Nigeria’s oil sector — long plagued by underinvestment, insecurity, and technical bottlenecks — appears to be regaining momentum. Hitting the 2.5mbpd target would not only strengthen government revenue but also enhance the country’s standing within OPEC.
Still, challenges remain: sustaining investment amid global energy transition pressures, curbing oil theft, and managing the delicate balance between fossil fuel revenues and climate commitments.
For now, the government insists the roadmap is clear. “Through collaboration and reforms, Nigeria is back on track to secure its oil future,” Komolafe said.