The UK’s refinery production has fallen to 4.104 million tonnes between January and July 2025, down from 4.207 million tonnes in the same period last year, according to new data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI). The decline comes as refinery closures and reduced capacity drive output to a post-pandemic low, reshaping the country’s energy landscape.

Major shutdowns—including Petroineos’ Grangemouth refinery in Scotland and Prax’s Lindsey plant in eastern England—have intensified the pressure, slashing gasoline and gasoil output while increasing the nation’s dependence on imports. Gasoline production dropped by 58,000 tonnes to 1.201 million tonnes, while gasoil output declined by 92,000 tonnes to 1.357 million tonnes. Though modest rises in jet-kerosene and fuel oil helped offset the overall downturn, net gasoline imports surged by 24,000 tonnes per month to 805,000 tonnes, even as exports fell to their lowest level in five years.

At the same time, gasoline reserves plunged to a 38-month low of 795,000 tonnes in July, underscoring the tightening supply. While Europe grapples with shrinking refining capacity and disrupted trade routes, Africa is witnessing a shift in energy dominance. Nigeria’s massive Dangote Refinery, with a 650,000-barrel-per-day capacity, has emerged as a stabilizing force in regional supply chains, increasingly filling the gaps left by Europe’s declining output.