African airlines experienced contrasting results in May 2025, as air cargo demand decreased by 2.1%, while passenger traffic saw a significant 9.5% rise, according to the latest data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Air Cargo Market Struggles
Despite a global increase in air cargo demand, African carriers faced a setback. Global air cargo volumes rose by 2.2% year-on-year in May, with international operations growing by 3.0%. However, African airlines saw a 2.1% decline in cargo demand, although capacity increased by 2.7%.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, attributed the global air cargo growth to the sector’s resilience in adapting to shifting supply chain needs. He remarked, “Air cargo demand globally grew 2.2% in May. That is encouraging news as a 10.7% drop in traffic on the Asia to North America trade lane illustrated the dampening effect of shifting US trade policies.”
Walsh highlighted other contributing factors, including a 2.6% rise in global industrial production in April 2025 and a decrease in jet fuel prices by 18.8% compared to the previous year.
Divergent Regional Trends
While global air cargo demand showed a 2.2% increase, regional performance varied significantly. In particular, Asia-Pacific airlines reported the strongest year-on-year growth at 8.3%, with capacity increasing by 5.7%. European and Middle Eastern carriers saw more modest gains, with 1.6% and 3.6% increases, respectively.
The Asia-North America trade lane, however, saw a notable decline, as shifting U.S. trade policies dampened demand. As a result, the broader reorganisation of cargo flows led to surprising growth in certain routes, despite the broader industry struggles.
Robust Passenger Traffic Growth
On the passenger side, African airlines reported a notable 9.5% year-on-year increase in demand for May 2025, which was significantly above the global average of 5.0%. IATA’s data revealed that total capacity for African carriers increased by 6.2%, reflecting the rising demand across the continent.
Domestic travel within Africa increased by 2.1%, while international demand grew by 15.9%, particularly along the Africa-Asia corridor. The international load factor for African airlines was up by 2.2 percentage points, reaching 74.9%.
In contrast, the global passenger demand in May 2025 was up by 5.0%, with a 6.7% increase in international travel. North America’s growth in air traffic, however, remained weak, with a 0.5% decline in demand, due to a 1.7% drop in the U.S. domestic market.
Geopolitical Instability Concerns
While the growth in air travel is generally optimistic, Walsh cautioned that geopolitical instability continues to pose risks to the global air travel market. He pointed to recent disruptions in the Middle East as a reminder that such instability could affect the broader industry, particularly oil prices, which remained low throughout May. “Severe disruptions in the Middle East in late June remind us that geopolitical instability remains a challenge,” said Walsh.
Despite these challenges, the continued strong consumer confidence and forward bookings for the summer travel season have kept the industry optimistic.
Looking Ahead
As airlines worldwide continue to recover from pandemic-related disruptions, the contrasting trends in cargo and passenger demand highlight the complexities of the air travel and logistics markets. While African airlines face cargo difficulties, they are capitalising on growing passenger traffic, especially on international routes. The ongoing volatility in trade policies, regional conflicts, and oil prices will remain key factors to monitor in the coming months.