Nigeria’s oil production is expected to rise in the coming years, with output projected to reach 1.73 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2026, according to a recent report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company.
The report attributes the expected increase to ongoing improvements in infrastructure, the debottlenecking of existing oil fields, and incremental contributions from smaller projects. This growth would position Nigeria’s output slightly above its current OPEC quota of 1.50 million bpd, though still below the more ambitious targets set by the country’s upstream regulators.
While the projection signals a positive trajectory for the oil sector, BMI cautions that several risks could affect production. These include potential disruptions at the Dangote Refinery, security challenges in oil-producing regions, and geopolitical tensions that may impact international partnerships.
The forecast comes amid expectations of a broader economic rebound in Nigeria. Stronger domestic demand, increased fixed investment, and moderate GDP growth are anticipated to accompany the rise in oil production, though the report notes that higher import levels could offset some export gains.
Recent figures indicate that Nigeria’s oil production has been fluctuating. In October 2025, production stood at 1.401 million bpd, below the OPEC quota, though earlier in the year, average output including condensates had reached approximately 1.737 million bpd.
BMI’s outlook highlights the potential for steady growth in Nigeria’s oil sector, provided infrastructural, security, and geopolitical challenges are effectively managed. Visit www.jocomms.com for more news.
