Nigeria’s crude oil export earnings fell by N3.18tn in the first half of 2025 despite a significant increase in production, according to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Figures show that while the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported a 12.7 per cent rise in crude oil output during the period, export receipts dropped by more than 11 per cent year-on-year.
Between January and June 2025, crude oil exports were valued at N24.92tn, down from N28.10tn in the same period of 2024 — representing an 11.3 per cent decline.
A breakdown of the NBS trade data shows that in Q1 2025, crude exports totalled N12.96tn, compared to N15.49tn in Q1 2024 — a fall of 16.3 per cent or N2.53tn. In Q2 2025, exports declined from N12.61tn in Q2 2024 to N11.97tn, a 5.1 per cent drop or N642bn.
Crude oil’s contribution to total exports also weakened notably. In Q1 2024, it accounted for 80.8 per cent of exports, but by Q1 2025 this had dropped to 62.9 per cent. The trend continued in Q2, when crude made up 52.6 per cent of exports compared to 71.2 per cent in Q2 2024.
By contrast, non-crude oil exports surged. They jumped to N18.43tn in H1 2025 from N8.79tn in H1 2024 — a 109.6 per cent increase. Non-oil exports alone rose from N3.74tn to N6.21tn, a 66 per cent rise.
Overall exports climbed 17.5 per cent to N43.35tn in H1 2025, from N36.89tn in H1 2024, while imports rose by 6.9 per cent to N30.71tn. This pushed Nigeria’s trade surplus up by 54.6 per cent, from N8.17tn to N12.64tn.
The figures highlight a paradox in Africa’s largest oil producer: while production has risen, export revenues have shrunk, raising questions about global demand, oil pricing, and rising domestic utilisation.
Earlier in the year, crude oil prices slipped below the government’s benchmark of $75 per barrel, fuelling concerns that weaker prices, coupled with increased domestic supply to local refineries such as the Dangote plant, could be diverting volumes away from the international market.
In the first four months of 2025 alone, the Federal Government sold crude worth N219.38bn to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Internal documents from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) also showed the government earned $1.59m from crude exports in April 2025 during a brief suspension of domestic crude allocations to local refineries.
Output Surges Amid Falling Earnings
Nigeria pumped 266.9 million barrels of crude between January and June 2025, according to NUPRC figures, up from 236.7 million barrels in the same period of 2024. Monthly output consistently surpassed 2024 levels: 47.7 million barrels in January (vs 44.2m), 41m in February (vs 38.3m), 43.4m in March (vs 38.2m), 44.6m in April (vs 38.7m), 45m in May (vs 39.1m) and 45.2m in June (vs 38.1m).
Including condensates, total liquid output rose to 303.2 million barrels in H1 2025, from 275 million barrels in H1 2024.
Industry analysts say the steady production increase reflects improved operating conditions but warn that challenges such as pipeline vandalism, theft, and underinvestment persist.
The NUPRC recently disclosed that crude oil losses dropped by 50.2 per cent in the first seven months of 2025, to 2.04 million barrels (9,600 bpd) — the lowest since 2009. In 2024, losses were 4.1 million barrels at an average of 11,300 bpd. The 2025 figure represents a 94.57 per cent decline from the record 37.6 million barrels lost in 2021.
“Between January and July 2025, crude oil losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 barrels per day over the seven-month period. This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry,” said Eniola Akinkuotu, NUPRC’s Head of Media and Strategic Communications.
The commission credited the improvement to tighter regulations, collaboration with security agencies and local communities, and reforms introduced by the Petroleum Industry Act.
Revenue Risks Loom
Despite the rise in output, experts warn that falling crude prices threaten government revenues.
Energy Professor Dayo Ayoade of Lagos State University noted that lower oil prices could ease fuel costs but strain the federal budget. “The government must do its best to achieve two million barrels per day, or the refineries will have to resort to imports, which may impact the fuel prices,” he said.
Similarly, Professor Adeola Adenikinju of the University of Ibadan warned that persistently low oil prices could complicate budget implementation.
“But macroeconomically, it’s going to have implications, especially for government revenue, simply because the two critical assumptions, you know, that would change the budget were the oil price and oil volume. So, if oil prices go down and persist, then that will mean that budget implementation will be very difficult,” he said.