The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has highlighted the impact of Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery on the global Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) market, particularly in Europe.
The 650,000-barrel-per-day capacity refinery, which commenced operations in January last year, began producing petrol in September, reducing Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports. Since then, the refinery has exported petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel to various countries within and beyond Africa.
In a report released on Wednesday, OPEC noted that the Dangote refinery’s ramp-up in petrol production has led to a decline in petroleum imports from Europe to Nigeria.
“The ongoing operational ramp-up efforts at Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery and its gasoline exports to the international market will likely weigh further on the European gasoline market,” the report stated. “Continued gasoline production in Nigeria… will free up gasoline volumes in international markets, necessitating new destinations and flow adjustments for the extra volumes.”
OPEC further observed that Nigeria’s reduced reliance on imported petroleum products had improved the country’s external sector outlook in the last quarter of 2024.
The report also noted a slight increase in gasoline crack spreads in Rotterdam against Brent crude, driven by healthy exports, although inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) storage hub remained high. With winter-season demand pressures, gasoline inventory builds are expected to continue, exacerbating bearish market sentiment.
Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production
OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report also revealed that Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production reached 1.507 million barrels per day (mbpd) in December 2024, up by 12,000bpd from November’s 1.477mbpd. Official government data aligned closely, reporting a December output of 1.485mbpd, consistent with figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
Dangote Refinery’s Global Standing
The $20 billion Dangote refinery is ranked above the largest refineries in Europe due to its impressive capacity. With a 650,000bpd refining capability, it surpasses Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands (404,000bpd), BP Rotterdam (380,000bpd), and Italy’s GOI Energy ISAB (360,000bpd). It also outpaces TotalEnergies Antwerp in Belgium (338,000bpd) and several others, according to Bloomberg data.
OPEC’s report underscores the transformative role of the Dangote refinery in reshaping Nigeria’s energy landscape and influencing global fuel market dynamics.