Google has acknowledged its early warning system, Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA), failed to properly alert millions of people during the deadly earthquakes that struck Turkey in 2023, resulting in significant loss of life. The company’s system, which operates in nearly 100 countries, did not provide adequate warnings despite being active on the day of the quakes, with only a small fraction of affected individuals receiving critical alerts.

A Missed Opportunity: 10 Million in Danger
On February 6, 2023, two catastrophic earthquakes—measuring 7.8 and 7.5 in magnitude—devastated southeastern Turkey, causing the deaths of over 55,000 people and injuring more than 100,000. Despite the widespread availability of Google’s AEA system, the company admits that it failed to send out its most serious warning, “Take Action,” to those most at risk. This highest level alert, which could have given people up to 35 seconds to find safety, was only sent to 469 users within 98 miles of the epicenter.

The system instead delivered a lower-level “Be Aware” alert, which is designed for “light shaking” and does not break through a device’s “Do Not Disturb” mode. Google had previously stated the system “performed well,” but investigations by BBC reporters revealed that not everyone had received the critical warnings.

A System in Place, But Unreliable
The AEA system works by using data from Android smartphones, which make up over 70% of the phones in Turkey. The system detects shaking from earthquakes by monitoring the movement of these devices. However, in the case of the February 2023 quakes, Google’s system misjudged the intensity of the tremors. It estimated the shaking at a much lower magnitude, between 4.5 and 4.9, when the actual magnitude was 7.8.

Google’s initial reaction was to describe the system’s performance as satisfactory, but a deeper investigation revealed serious flaws in the technology. Not until post-event analysis did Google discover the full extent of the failure. The system has since been updated, and in simulations using new algorithms, it correctly sent 10 million high-level “Take Action” warnings for the first quake.

System Improvements and Limitations
In response to the failure, Google researchers acknowledged the limitations of the detection algorithms. Although the system has been improved, the tragic consequences of the underperformance have led to significant criticism. Elizabeth Reddy, an assistant professor at the Colorado School of Mines, expressed frustration, saying, “We’re not talking about a little event—people died—and we didn’t see a performance of this warning in the way we would like.”

Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, also voiced concerns, warning that over-reliance on untested tech might lead to dangerous complacency. “Being very transparent about how well it works is absolutely critical,” he said.

Challenges and Future Outlook
Google asserts that its early warning system is meant to be a supplementary tool and not a replacement for national earthquake warning systems. However, the underperformance during the 2023 Turkey quakes has raised critical questions about its reliability in life-threatening situations. Some scientists have warned that nations may be too reliant on Google’s technology, neglecting to develop more robust, locally managed early warning systems.

Since the 2023 quakes, AEA has continued to operate in 98 countries, sending out millions of alerts for various seismic events. Despite the improvements, the system’s credibility remains under scrutiny. The BBC has reached out to Google to inquire about AEA’s performance during a recent earthquake in Myanmar but has yet to receive a response.

Conclusion: A Call for Transparency
As the technology continues to evolve, it is clear that Google must do more to ensure that its earthquake alert system can reliably predict and warn users in future emergencies. For now, the lack of transparency in the aftermath of the 2023 Turkey earthquake serves as a painful reminder of the limitations of tech-based disaster management systems.