The Conservative Party is sharply divided over whether Kemi Badenoch should lead the Tories into the next United Kingdom general election scheduled for August 2029, according to a new YouGov poll of party members.
Although Badenoch maintains a generally positive approval rating within the party, discontent has been growing following the Conservatives’ poor showing in the May 2026 local elections. Those elections saw the Tories record just 15 percent of the vote, their worst result since 1995, after early polling suggested she had underperformed and focused on the wrong priorities.
A YouGov survey of 652 Conservative members shows that 29 percent view Badenoch unfavourably, while about 70 percent still hold a favourable opinion of her leadership. When asked about job performance, 37 percent said she is doing a bad job, compared to 61 percent who believe she is performing well.
However, on the critical question of whether Badenoch should lead the party into the 2029 general election, members were split almost evenly. Half of respondents — 50 percent — said she should not be the prime ministerial candidate, while 46 percent still support her leadership into the next ballot.
“Even among those who voted for her to be party leader last year, 30% believe Badenoch should be replaced as party leader by the next general election,” YouGov said in its findings published on October 6.
The debate over succession has intensified since the local election losses, with speculation mounting about a leadership challenge. Robert Jenrick, the right-wing shadow justice secretary and runner-up in the 2024 leadership race, is currently seen as the frontrunner to succeed her among party members. Former prime minister Boris Johnson and James Cleverly, the shadow housing secretary, are also emerging as potential contenders.
The growing divide highlights the internal struggle within the Conservative Party as it attempts to rebuild electoral confidence and define its strategy ahead of both the 2026 local polls and the 2029 general election.
