The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2025 upward to 3.4 per cent, up from the 3.0 per cent forecast in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook. The updated July report reflects renewed optimism about Nigeria’s short-term prospects, despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges and regional volatility. Growth is expected to ease slightly to 3.2 per cent in 2026, but still marks a 0.5 percentage point increase over earlier projections.
While Nigeria’s growth remains below the Sub-Saharan Africa regional average of 4.0 per cent for 2025 and 4.3 per cent for 2026, it stays well ahead of South Africa’s stagnant forecast of 1.0 per cent in 2025 and 1.3 per cent in 2026. The IMF attributes Nigeria’s improved outlook to stabilising policy reforms and a more resilient domestic economic environment, though it warns of potential headwinds if fiscal and structural issues persist.
On the global front, the IMF revised its 2025 growth forecast to 3.0 per cent, citing stronger financial conditions, reduced tariff threats, and fiscal expansion in key economies. However, it cautioned that recent trade-driven momentum may be temporary, with inflation expected to slow globally but remain uneven across regions. The Fund warned of possible economic slowdown in 2026, as early gains from front-loaded trade and investment taper off.
