Nigeria’s goal of meeting its 2025 oil production target may face a setback following a protest by the Itsekiri community in the Niger Delta that has halted operations at the 28,000-barrel-per-day Escravos oil production facility in Ogidigben, part of the Ugborodo region.
The protest, which took place early Wednesday morning, is in response to what the Itsekiri community views as an unjust proposed ward delineation by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The facility, once operated by Shell and now managed by Renaissance Africa Energy Holdings, was peacefully occupied by men, women, and youths from the community.
The protesters allege that INEC’s proposed ward boundaries unfairly reduce the representation of the Itsekiri people within the Warri Federal Constituency, while increasing the number of wards for other ethnic groups in the region. They have threatened further shutdowns of oil facilities in the coming days unless the delineation is reviewed.
This development comes at a critical time as Nigeria strives to meet its daily oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day (b/d) for 2025. The country is already grappling with a decline in oil revenues due to falling crude prices, exacerbated by new trade tariffs imposed by the United States.
Last week, the Trump administration introduced tariffs ranging from 10% to 65% on various countries, including a 14% tariff on Nigerian exports to the U.S. In response, Finance Minister Wale Edun assured that the government would work to boost non-oil revenues to mitigate the impact of the tariffs on trade. He acknowledged that Nigeria’s oil revenue would be affected but emphasized that the Economic Management Team (EMT) would assess the potential impact of the tariff and advise the government accordingly.
“We must look at various scenarios that might play out, as there is global uncertainty,” Edun said during a conference in Abuja on Monday. “It’s our responsibility to evaluate the options and advise government accordingly.”
Nigeria’s current oil production stands at approximately 1.75 million b/d, with OPEC’s quota set at 1.5 million b/d.
The protest at the Escravos facility was marked by protesters chanting and singing, while armed security personnel guarded the site. Prior to the shutdown, unrest had been brewing, with Itsekiri youths and women marching across Warri’s three local government areas to reject INEC’s proposed ward boundaries. The peaceful protests also took place at the Olu Palace field, where the community voiced concerns about the perceived imbalance in the proposed delineation.
The Itsekiri community claims that the new ward boundaries favor the Ijaw and Urhobo ethnic groups, creating additional wards for them while reducing the number of wards allocated to the Itsekiri, even in areas where the community has historically had a presence.
Similarly, leaders from the Okere-Urhobo kingdom in Warri South have expressed dissatisfaction with the proposal, arguing that their population size justifies at least four to six wards, not the one allocated by INEC.
The Itsekiri have vowed to escalate their actions if the ward delineation is not reconsidered. They have warned of more shutdowns at critical oil and gas facilities across the region unless the proposal is withdrawn and re-evaluated.
As part of a Supreme Court ruling, INEC recently presented a new ward delineation report for the region, which includes the following distribution:
- Warri North LGA: 18 wards, with 10 for the Ijaws and 8 for the Itsekiris.
- Warri South-West LGA: 19 wards, with 14 for the Ijaws and 5 for the Itsekiris.
- Warri South LGA: 20 wards, with 9 for the Urhobo, 8 for the Itsekiri, and 3 for the Ijaw.
The situation remains tense, and the outcome of these protests could significantly impact both Nigeria’s oil production targets and regional political dynamics.
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