The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has forecast that Lagos, Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom will face some of the heaviest rainfall in 2025, with an expected range of 250 to 290 rainy days, according to the agency’s 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction, released on Monday.

These coastal and southeastern states are expected to endure longer periods of rainfall compared to other regions of the country, which could impact agriculture, transportation, and local economies.

Regional Rainfall Patterns: What to Expect

NiMet’s detailed projection indicates significant variations in rainfall patterns across the country. States such as Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Osun, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu are expected to receive between 200 and 250 rainy days, marking the next highest rainfall period.

Meanwhile, states in the central region, including Niger, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), will experience rainfall spanning from 150 to 200 days. Northern states like Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, Yobe, and Borno will see fewer rainy days, ranging from 110 to 150.

The total annual rainfall across the country will vary significantly, ranging from 405 mm in the northern parts to as much as 3,010 mm in the coastal states. The lowest rainfall is expected in the far north, with areas such as Borno, Yobe, Sokoto, and Katsina projected to receive less than 685 mm.

For central states, including parts of Niger, Kwara, Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue, and the FCT, annual rainfall is expected to range from 970 mm to 1,500 mm. In contrast, the coastal regions like Rivers, Bayelsa, Cross River, and Akwa Ibom are anticipated to receive between 2,700 mm and 3,010 mm.

Above-Normal Rainfall Forecast for Select Regions

The prediction shows that certain regions of the country, including parts of Kaduna, Ebonyi, Cross River, Lagos, Abia, Akwa Ibom, and the FCT, are expected to witness rainfall totals above the long-term average. These regions could see increased agricultural yields but may also face flooding risks.

Onset and Cessation of the Rainy Season

The onset of the rainy season is expected to vary across Nigeria, with southern states such as Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti, Edo, Cross River, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia, and Anambra likely to experience rains between March and April.

In central Nigeria, the rains are predicted to begin between April and May, covering states such as Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Taraba, and the FCT. Northern states, including Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Bauchi, Yobe, and Borno, will see rainfall starting between early June and July.

However, NiMet has also warned of possible delayed rainfall onset in parts of Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kwara states. On the other hand, an early onset is predicted for regions like Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, and parts of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Imo, and Ebonyi states.

Dry Spells and Potential Risks

Dry spells are also expected during the rainy season, particularly in regions like Oyo State, where a severe dry spell lasting up to 15 days is predicted. In parts of Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom, moderate dry spells of up to 15 days may occur.

In northern states, a severe dry spell of up to 21 days is anticipated during the peak rainy season (June to August), potentially affecting crop growth and water availability.

Projected Cessation of the Rainy Season

The 2025 rainy season is expected to end between October 6 and December 17. Northern parts of the country will experience the earliest cessation, starting in the first week of October. By mid-November, the central states will begin to see the end of the season, and the coastal areas will experience a final cessation around December 17.

NiMet has noted that the cessation of rainfall in the northern states is anticipated to occur earlier than normal, beginning around October 6 in parts of Sokoto, Zamfara, and Katsina. In contrast, a delayed cessation is expected in parts of Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Lagos, Kwara, Taraba, Oyo, Ogun, Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu states.

Preparing for the Rainy Season

Given the expected rainfall variations, it is crucial for government agencies, businesses, and individuals to prepare for the consequences of these weather patterns. Key sectors such as agriculture, infrastructure, and health will need to adjust to ensure sustainability and mitigate potential disruptions caused by heavy rains or dry spells.

The forecast provides valuable insights for disaster preparedness, resource allocation, and long-term planning in various regions of the country.