Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensate, declined to 1.486 million barrels per day (bpd) in April 2025, marking a month-on-month drop from 1.401 million bpd in March, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The latest figures, disclosed in OPEC’s May 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), are based on data obtained through direct communication with member states. However, secondary sources reflected a slightly higher output of 1.471 million bpd for the same period.
Crude oil prices, including Nigeria’s flagship Bonny Light grade, hovered around $66 per barrel yesterday—approximately $9 below the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark price of $75 per barrel. This gap threatens to complicate fiscal planning, especially as Nigeria’s 2025 budget of ₦54.99 trillion is premised on oil prices at $75 per barrel, production of 2.06 million bpd, and an exchange rate of ₦1,500 to the dollar.
Contrastingly, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported a higher oil output for April 2025, pegging it at 1.683 million bpd—a 5 percent increase from 1.603 million bpd recorded in March. The commission stated, “Lowest and Peak Combined crude oil and Condensate Production in April were 1.60 million bopd and 1.73 million bopd respectively.”
NUPRC’s breakdown revealed that the average daily production in April was 1,683,307 barrels per day, composed of crude oil at 1,485,700 bpd and condensate at 197,607 bpd. The crude oil output corresponded to 99 percent of Nigeria’s OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd.
The report further clarified that of the total 1.683 million bpd output, crude oil and condensate accounted for 1.485 million bpd and 197,607 bpd respectively.
Meanwhile, the NUPRC announced the successful export of the first cargo of Nigeria’s new Obodo crude blend to international markets. Gbenga Komolafe, the commission’s Chief Executive Officer, congratulated Conoil Producing Limited on this milestone, describing it as “a major achievement for Nigeria’s upstream sector” and a testament to the expanding capacity of local operators to contribute significantly to crude oil production and exports.
As the nation navigates fluctuating production figures and persistent price pressures, concerns mount over the sustainability of government revenue projections tied closely to oil benchmarks. The divergence between OPEC and NUPRC production data adds complexity to the outlook, while the gap between market prices and budget assumptions underscores the need for fiscal prudence.
