Nigeria’s crude oil production climbed slightly to 1.401 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up from 1.390 million bpd recorded in September. Despite the modest increase, the figure remains below the country’s OPEC production quota of about 1.5 million bpd, marking the third consecutive month the nation has failed to meet its assigned target.
According to data published by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and reports from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s average output for the third quarter of 2025 stood at 1.444 million bpd, compared to 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter and 1.468 million bpd in the first quarter.
Energy analysts attribute the continued shortfall to pipeline vandalism, crude theft, ageing infrastructure, and funding challenges that have hindered investment in upstream oil projects.
Despite these challenges, the federal government remains optimistic. The Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has announced Nigeria’s intention to seek OPEC’s approval for a higher quota potentially up to 2 million bpd citing efforts to restore production capacity and boost revenue.
Globally, oil supply in October exceeded demand by approximately 500,000 bpd, reversing a deficit of 400,000 bpd recorded the previous month. This slight oversupply could place downward pressure on crude prices, intensifying competition among producers, including Nigeria.
Oil remains Nigeria’s largest foreign exchange earner, and consistent underperformance poses risks to the nation’s fiscal projections and foreign reserves. Analysts warn that missing the quota repeatedly may weaken Nigeria’s influence within OPEC and complicate future negotiations on production levels.
Despite these headwinds, industry observers note that Nigeria’s gradual recovery in output signals some progress toward stability in the sector. Sustained reforms, security improvements, and renewed investment will be crucial to achieving both domestic targets and OPEC compliance in the months ahead. Visit www.jocomms.com for more news.
