The Presidency has dismissed the World Bank’s latest economic assessment, which estimated that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, calling the figure exaggerated and detached from on-ground realities. President Bola Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, said on Wednesday via his official X handle that the poverty figures must be “properly contextualised” within the limits of global poverty measurement models.
“While Nigeria values its partnership with the World Bank and appreciates its contributions to policy analysis, the figure quoted must be properly contextualised. It is unrealistic,” Dare wrote.
According to the Presidency, the World Bank’s estimate was based on the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day, set in 2017 using Purchasing Power Parity, and should not be interpreted as an actual headcount of poor Nigerians. It noted that when converted to nominal value, the benchmark equals nearly N100,000 monthly, above Nigeria’s new minimum wage of N70,000.
“There must be caution against interpreting the World Bank’s numbers as a literal, real-time headcount. The estimate is derived from the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day, a benchmark set in 2017 Purchasing Power Parity terms. If converted nominally, that figure equals about $64.5 per month, or nearly N100,000 at today’s exchange rate, well above Nigeria’s new minimum wage of N70,000. Clearly, the measure is an analytical construct, not a direct reflection of local income realities.
“Poverty assessment under PPP methodology uses historical consumption data (Nigeria’s last major survey was in 2018/19) and often overlooks the informal and subsistence economies that sustain millions of households. The government, therefore, regards the figure as a modelled global estimate, not an empirical representation of conditions in 2025. What truly matters is the trajectory, and Nigeria’s is now one of recovery and inclusive reform,” the statement read.
The Presidency stated that ongoing reforms, including cash transfers and community-level development programmes, are designed to cushion the impact of economic transitions while laying a foundation for inclusive growth. Among the highlighted initiatives are Conditional Cash Transfers to 15 million households, the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme, and strengthened National Social Investment Programmes such as N-Power and micro-loan schemes.
It added that subsidised grain distribution, fertiliser support, and strategic food reserve programmes are being implemented to stabilise food prices and curb inflationary pressure on essential commodities. The administration also referenced the Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund, National Credit Guarantee Company, and power and manufacturing investments aimed at job creation and lowering living costs.
The Presidency maintained that subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and fiscal reallocation were “painful but necessary choices” to address structural distortions that have long hindered productivity. It noted that even the World Bank acknowledged signs of macroeconomic recovery, including rising revenues, stabilising foreign exchange markets, and easing inflation.
“Nigerians should begin to feel more visible improvements in food prices, income, and purchasing power as these programmes mature,” the statement added, stressing that all welfare programmes are being consolidated under a unified data-driven framework to avoid duplication and ensure transparency.
“Nigeria rejects exaggerated statistical interpretations detached from local realities. The government remains focused on empowering households, expanding opportunity, and laying the foundation for a fairer, more prosperous nation,” it concluded.
Earlier, at the launch of the October 2025 Nigeria Development Update titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” World Bank Country Director, Mathew Verghis, warned that despite economic stabilisation efforts, poverty had risen sharply, reaching 139 million people. He likened the reform window to that of India in the early 1990s, urging Nigeria to move from policy announcements to tangible welfare improvements.
Opposition figures, economists, and labour representatives criticised the administration, arguing that while macroeconomic indicators may suggest recovery, ordinary Nigerians are yet to feel any relief. Labour leaders said the rising cost of food, housing, and transportation has eroded the value of the N70,000 minimum wage, which they noted “barely covers the cost of a bag of rice.”
Economists warned that while reforms were necessary, inflation and currency shocks had intensified hardship. They called for targeted welfare policies, investment in human capital, and job-focused sectors such as agriculture, energy, and digital skills to translate growth into real poverty reduction.
Despite differing views on the data, both the government and analysts agree that reforms must now shift from policy stabilisation to direct welfare impact to prevent social discontent and ensure reform gains reach households.
