As President Bola Tinubu prepares to present the 2025 budget to the National Assembly, the Senate has approved the 2025–2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP). This decision follows the adoption of a report presented by the Senate’s joint Committees on Finance and National Planning & Economic Affairs, led by Senator Sani Musa (APC, Niger East), during Tuesday’s plenary.

In a move to address fiscal transparency, the Senate also directed several committees to investigate claims from the Revenue Mobilisation, Allocation and Fiscal Responsibility Commission alleging that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) had withheld N8.48 trillion in petrol subsidies. The investigation will also focus on a report by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), which claims that NNPCL failed to remit $2 billion (N3.6 trillion) in taxes to the Federal Government.

Further, the Senate asked its committees to verify the cumulative amount of unremitted revenue from the sale of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, by NNPCL between 2020 and 2023. The committees have also been tasked with reviewing agreements between NNPCL, Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG), and Immigration Services to reconcile remittances to the Federation Account.

The three-year projections outlined in the MTEF include a pegged exchange rate of N1,400/$ for 2025, 2026, and 2027. The Senate also set oil benchmark prices at $75, $76.2, and $75.3 per barrel for the respective years. Additionally, projections for domestic crude oil production show an increase, from 1.78 million barrels per day (bpd) in the preceding year to 2.06 million bpd in 2025, rising to 2.35 million bpd by 2027.

Other projections include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates of 4.6%, 4.4%, and 5.5% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with inflation rates forecasted at 15.75%, 14.21%, and 10.04% for the same years.

The Senate also called for a reduction in petrol prices in light of the expected commencement of operations at the Port Harcourt refinery. The proposed budget for 2025 includes a total spending of N47.9 trillion, with N34.82 trillion retained. New borrowings are set at N9.22 trillion, and capital expenditure is projected at N16.48 trillion, with statutory transfers at N4.26 trillion.

Senator Solomon Adeola (APC, Ogun West) underscored the importance of the Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiative in driving down foreign exchange demand, supporting the N1,400 to $1 exchange rate. He also highlighted the high recurrent-to-capital ratio, which needs addressing.

Former Senate Leader Senator Yahaya Abdullahi (PDP, Kebbi North) emphasized the need to support manufacturing industries for the projections to be realized. Senate President Senator Godswill Akpabio commended the joint committees for their thorough work on the MTEF report.

Senator Jimoh Ibrahim (APC, Ondo South) called for the adoption of a transactional tax system, urging the wealthy to contribute more to the tax base. He stressed that the GDP to tax ratio is currently low, with about 72% of potential taxpayers outside the net.

Meanwhile, Senator Aliyu Wadada (SDP, Nasarawa West), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Public Accounts, decried the lack of transparency in NNPCL’s tax remittances. He also questioned the operation of the Port Harcourt refinery, noting that no trucks had been reported to lift products since the refinery’s claimed commencement.

As the investigation into NNPCL’s financial practices continues, the Senate’s oversight functions will be pivotal in ensuring that transparency and accountability are maintained in the oil and gas sector.