South Africa and Rwanda’s already strained diplomatic relations have deteriorated further following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s accusation that the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group was responsible for the killing of South African peacekeepers in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo).

Rising Tensions and the Battlefield Shift

As M23 rebels gained the upper hand by capturing most of Goma—the largest city in eastern DR Congo—South Africa issued a stark warning. Pretoria declared that further attacks on its troops would be considered a “declaration of war.”

Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame swiftly countered, accusing South Africa of being part of a “belligerent force” engaged in “offensive combat operations” to support the Congolese government against its own people.

Since last week, 13 South African soldiers have been killed as the rebels advanced toward Goma, a key trading hub on the Rwandan border. This follows last year’s deadly loss of seven South African soldiers in eastern DR Congo, marking one of the country’s most significant combat-related tragedies in recent times.

A History of Diplomatic Strife

South Africa and Rwanda have a history of turbulent relations. In 2014, South Africa expelled three Rwandan diplomats following an attack on the home of an exiled Rwandan dissident in Johannesburg. Rwanda retaliated by expelling six South African envoys.

Tensions appeared to ease last year when President Ramaphosa visited Rwanda for the 30th anniversary of the Rwandan genocide, in which approximately 800,000 people were killed. However, the latest clashes have reignited hostilities, particularly following the deaths of South African peacekeepers deployed to DR Congo in December 2023 as part of a regional peacekeeping force under the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

The Role of South African Peacekeepers in DR Congo

South Africa contributes the bulk of the troops in the SADC Mission in DR Congo (SAMIDRC), tasked with repelling armed groups like M23 and stabilizing the mineral-rich region after decades of conflict.

The current diplomatic fallout began with a post on President Ramaphosa’s X (formerly Twitter) account, in which he confirmed discussions with Kagame about the escalating conflict. Ramaphosa stated that both leaders had agreed on “the urgent need for a ceasefire and the resumption of peace talks by all parties to the conflict.”

In a later statement, Ramaphosa emphasized that South African troops were not engaged in a “declaration of war against any country or state,” indirectly addressing Rwanda. However, Defence Minister Angie Motshekga offered a slightly different perspective, telling reporters: “There’s been no hostilities between us, it’s just that when they were firing above our heads, the president did warn them [that] if you’re going to fire, we’re going to take that as a declaration of war.”

Ramaphosa later escalated the rhetoric on X, stating that peacekeepers had been killed in attacks by M23 and “Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) militia,” a claim that drew immediate backlash from Kagame.

Kagame’s Strong Response

President Kagame dismissed South Africa’s claims as distortions. Responding on X, he said: “The Rwanda Defence Force is an army, not a militia.”

He further claimed that Ramaphosa had never issued any warnings, adding, “President Ramaphosa confirmed to me that M23 did not kill the soldiers from South Africa, [the Congolese army] FARDC did.”

Kagame accused the regional peacekeeping forces—including troops from Tanzania and Malawi—of aligning with “genocidal armed groups” hostile to Rwanda. He bluntly stated that South Africa was unfit to mediate peace and warned that Rwanda was prepared to “deal with the matter in that context any day.”

What’s at Stake for South Africa?

South Africa’s involvement in DR Congo dates back to the late 1990s when it joined the UN peacekeeping mission, Monusco, following the end of apartheid. Initially, South Africa’s military transitioned from being a “highly effective wartime force” to a peacetime entity grappling with reduced funding and political constraints.

While Pretoria officially justifies its engagement in DR Congo as a peacekeeping effort under SADC, defence analyst Dean Wingrin highlights the economic stakes. “The DRC is a very big trading partner with [South Africa] because eastern DRC is rich in minerals. We import a lot of minerals… so South Africa has an interest in a peaceful DRC,” he told the BBC.

Challenges on the Ground

South Africa’s military once played a decisive role in repelling M23 in 2013, largely due to the deployment of its powerful Rooivalk attack helicopters. However, due to budget constraints, the South African Air Force can no longer maintain these aircraft, leaving its troops vulnerable in the current conflict.

“Unfortunately, South Africa’s budget has continued to decline over the years. The air force couldn’t afford to maintain the Rooivalks,” Wingrin noted. “We’re missing that vital air cover that would have come in so handy a few days ago, but it’s way too late now.”

Similarly, military expert Thomas Mandrup warned that South Africa deployed its troops in 2023 despite warnings about insufficient capabilities. “You haven’t got the capabilities needed, the defence force is in shambles, and you’re facing an opponent that’s much better equipped than in 2013,” he said.

Difficult Decisions Ahead

With South African forces now “locked down and caught in two bases,” retreat is not an immediate option. “They can’t get out, get air cover, reinforcements, or even evacuate the wounded,” Mandrup emphasized.

Ramaphosa acknowledged the precarious situation, describing the region as “tense, volatile, and unpredictable.”

Ultimately, the decision to withdraw South African troops lies with SADC, which deployed SAMIDRC as a regional force. Reports suggest that SADC may address the matter at an upcoming summit.

For South Africa, this presents a critical dilemma: remain in DR Congo and risk further casualties, or negotiate a withdrawal and risk political embarrassment. As Wingrin puts it, the government must conduct “serious introspection” regarding its military involvement.

“Is this something they want to push at all costs, and what is it worth to South Africa to have sons and daughters dying so far away?” he asked.

As tensions rise, Ramaphosa faces a tough decision—one that will define South Africa’s role in regional peacekeeping and its future relations with Rwanda.