Togo is increasingly aligning itself with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a confederation led by the military juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The small West African nation’s port access could prove pivotal for the landlocked Sahel states, whose leaders seek greater economic and strategic autonomy.
Foreign Minister Robert Dussey has escalated Togo’s engagement with the AES, which was initially formed as a defense pact in 2023 but has since expanded its ambitions for deeper regional integration. In January, Dussey suggested that Togo’s membership was “not impossible,” and last week he took a step further, stating on social media:
“Togo is considering joining the AES, a strategic decision that could strengthen regional cooperation and offer access to the sea to member countries.”
Strategic and Economic Interests
For Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, securing access to a reliable port is critical. Tensions with neighboring Côte d’Ivoire and Benin—countries seen as too closely aligned with Western powers—have already led these nations to shift trade routes to Togo’s Lomé port and Ghana’s Tema port.
Joining AES could deepen trade ties and provide Togo with economic and security benefits.
“There’s the hope of economic solidarity—access to Nigerien oil, renewed trade routes,” said Togolese political analyst Madi Djabakate. He also noted that Togo could gain from closer military cooperation and intelligence sharing with its neighbors, particularly as jihadist activity rises in northern Togo near Burkina Faso’s border.
Political and Geopolitical Implications
The AES bloc, formed by juntas that took power between 2020 and 2023, has distanced itself from former colonial power France and other Western allies, forging stronger ties with Russia and alternative partners. These leaders have resisted international pressure to hold quick elections, opting instead for prolonged transitional governments.
Togo’s interest in the AES reflects a broader pan-African sentiment, according to Djabakate:
“By engaging with the AES, Togo is part of a pan-African narrative where nations, long divided, are learning to stand together.”
For President Faure Gnassingbé, in power since 2005, closer ties with the military-led Sahel states could also serve a domestic political purpose. A controversial constitutional reform passed last year has sparked criticism, with opposition voices arguing that it paves the way for Gnassingbé to extend his rule indefinitely. Djabakate suggests that aligning with the AES—where leaders have rejected swift democratic transitions—could serve as a distraction from domestic political tensions.
Tensions with ECOWAS
Togo’s potential AES membership also raises concerns about its future in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The Sahel states exited ECOWAS earlier this year, accusing the bloc of favoring Western interests and failing to curb jihadist threats.
Nathaniel Olympio, a key opposition figure in Togo, warned that shifting toward the AES could be a strategic move to avoid ECOWAS-imposed democratic standards.
“Membership of the AES would protect [Togo’s] regime from the constraints of ECOWAS on respect for the rule of law and public freedoms,” he said.
Despite its growing ties with the Sahelian alliance, analysts believe Togo is unlikely to fully sever ties with ECOWAS.
“Alliances aren’t marriages, but rather partnerships,” Djabakate remarked, suggesting that Togo could maintain its ECOWAS membership while exploring new strategic opportunities with the AES.
However, geopolitical expert Seidik Abba cautioned that if Togo formally joins the AES, it could accelerate ECOWAS’s decline.
“Togo’s move could speed up ECOWAS’s disintegration,” Abba said. “At the very least, it will deepen its already precarious situation.”