The question that continues to agitate many minds in Nigeria today is: Will Siminalayi Fubara return as the governor of Rivers State after serving the six-month suspension imperiously slammed on him by President Bola Tinubu on Tuesday, March 18?
I doubt!
I have a hunch he won’t be reinstated by those who contemptuously and unconstitutionally shoved him off his high perch, unless Nigerians show proof that they will no longer tolerate the impunity of the Tinubu presidency as South Koreans did recently.
On June 3, South Korea will hold a snap presidential election to choose President Yoon Suk Yeol’s successor after the conservative leader was ousted over his imposition of martial law in December 2024. The announcement from acting President Han Duck-soo came four days after the country’s Constitutional Court – equivalent of Nigeria’s Supreme Court – unanimously removed Yoon from office.
Just like Tinubu’s narrow victory in the 2023 presidential election, the former President Yoon narrowly defeated Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party by less than a percentage point on March 9, 2022 and assumed office in May. Going by the country’s presidential term, which has been set at five years since 1988, he should have left office on May 10, 2027.
But like Tinubu in Rivers State, the 64-year-old Yoon made an unprecedented power grab on December 3, 2024 when he declared martial law in South Korea, sending hundreds of soldiers and police officers to the National Assembly on the excuse that he sought to maintain order, a move which shocked all.
But hearkening to the admonition of John Philpot Curran, an Irish lawyer, who famously stated that “the condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance” in a July 10, 1790 speech in Dublin, the South Korean lawmakers acutely aware that their president had just carried out a “coup” by taking actions “beyond the powers provided in the constitution,” indignantly stepped up to the legislative plate and the state of emergency and concomitant martial law only lasted about six hours as parliament eventually voted to block the decree.
Not even President Yoon’s excuse that martial law was needed to defend the country from nuclear-armed North Korea, pro-North anti-state forces, and protect its free constitutional order, even when he cited no specific threats, could sway the piqued lawmakers, who not only suspended his presidential powers but voted to impeach him on December 14, 2024. In January, he was arrested and indicted by prosecutors on alleged rebellion.
The hunter, having become the hunted, the disgraced president went to court to quash his impeachment. On Friday, April 4, South Korea’s apex court confirmed his dismissal and upheld his impeachment on the ground that he “violated his duty as commander-in-chief by mobilising troops” when he declared martial law.
Calling the former president’s action “a serious challenge to democracy,” Acting Chief Justice Moon Hyung-bae said: “(Yoon) committed a grave betrayal of the people’s trust.” Human Rights Watch concurred, calling the ruling a win for the country’s resilience, quest for human rights and democratic values.
In a message to South Koreans through his lawyers shortly after the ruling, a humbled Yoon apologised: “I am so sorry and regretful that I wasn’t able to live up to your expectations.”
Now, President Yoon failed in his gambit because the critical institutions of the Korean State – legislature and judiciary – held him to account.
Contrast that with Tinubu’s impunity on the belief that “the heavens will not fall” and you will appreciate why Nigeria’s democracy is in grave danger.
On Tuesday, March 18, 2025, President Tinubu exercised powers he does not have by imposing a state of emergency in Rivers State and suspending Governor Fubara, his deputy, Ngozi Odu, and all elected members of the House of Assembly for “an initial period of six months.” The implication is that if after the “initial period of six months,” Tinubu is not convinced that his ultimate goal has been achieved, he may well extend the suspension.
Tinubu said the decision was taken to restore stability in the state that has been witnessing political turmoil as a result of the disagreement between the governor and the lawmakers. But he was being economical with the truth, which is: Fubara has disagreement with his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, who happens to be Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Tinubu’s employee.
Having successfully executed a coup d’état in one of the country’s federating units by the sudden and unlawful seizure of power from a democratically elected government with the apparent acquiescence of both the National Assembly and Supreme Court, Tinubu went ahead to unilaterally and unconstitutionally appoint former Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Ibok-Ette Ibas (retd.) as the sole administrator and rolled out military tanks on the streets to enforce his will.
On Wednesday, March 19, Tinubu and his cabal stretched the illegality when he swore in Ibas at Aso Rock cheered by his Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Prince Lateef Fagbemi, Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, and other aides. Nobody knows what Oath of Office Ibas took.
And although Tinubu claims that his action was informed by the security situation in Rivers State and the need to forestall a total breakdown of law and order, no one knows what mandate he gave his sole administrator. Meanwhile, to consolidate power, the sole administrator appointed a serving Naval Officer, Commodore Aminu Shehu, as his Chief of Staff.
Since then, Ibas has been systemically and diligently dismantling all the institutions of governance in Rivers. Having been given all the money accruing to the state government which was hitherto seized, the sole administrator is proposing a fresh budget, a proposition that has alarmed the House of Representatives.
Last week, he suspended all MDA heads and dissolved boards with immediate effect. He also cancelled all pending procurement and tender processes. But on Wednesday, April 9, he unilaterally announced the reconstitution of some of the boards, populating them with Wike’s loyalists.
It is laughable that the same Ibas who claimed the cancellation of all pending procurements became necessary following the Supreme Court judgement and the absence of an appropriation law, and even went as far as directing all MDAs that carried out such tender processes for projects to immediately refund such fees to the respective contractors, has been spending the billions of naira Tinubu is throwing on his laps without appropriation.
He has also appointed sole administrators to take charge of the 23 local government areas and reconstituted the Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission, RISIEC, with Dr. Michael Odey as Chairman.
Sadly, these appointments were announced barely 24 hours after a Federal High Court sitting in Port Harcourt restrained him from doing so even as he continues to evade service of court documents.
Vice Admiral Ibas’ actions since he assumed the sole administratorship of Rivers, a patently illegal usurpation of power in a supposed democracy, as it relates to the release and appropriation of state funds violates Sections 120 and 121 of the Nigerian Constitution, particularly in the light of the recent Supreme Court ruling on the same matter.
Truth be told, right now, there is no accountability and transparency in the handling of Rivers State resources. What is happening is tantamount to stealing the people’s patrimony. Meanwhile, as Tinubu disingenuously blames Fubara for all the crisis, quarantining him in Port Harcourt, Wike, the real villain is having a ball and threatening not only Rivers but the entire Niger Delta.
This week, Wike hosted the suspended lawmakers to a lavish dinner in the United Kingdom. They are said to be in the UK for “legislative capacity building,” having left Nigeria on Sunday night.
So, as the days roll by and the Rivers sole administrator continues to consolidate power on behalf of those who sent him on the unsavory mission, the question that is concentrating many minds is: what happens after six months?
Anyone who believes that after six months, Tinubu will ask Fubara to resume office must be living in a fool’s paradise. It won’t happen. If that was the idea, then there would have been no need for the state of emergency in the first place. All that was needed to solve the contrived political crisis would have been for Tinubu to tell his minister to steer clear of Rivers State and allow Fubara to exercise the mandate given to him by the electorate since he has a full-time job in Abuja.
But Tinubu didn’t because he knows that the game plan is to deny the people the right to choose who governs them, a game he is adept at. The people must brace up for the battle ahead. In South Korea, the institutions of state did the job on behalf of the people. In Nigeria, those same institutions – the Godswill Akpabio-led National Assembly and the Supreme Court – are reluctant to do their job. As it is, the only thing that can bring Fubara back to power is the people’s righteous anger.