Abuja, Nigeria — The Nigerian federal government’s net oil revenue for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024 fell significantly short of its official projections, according to a recent report published by the Budget Office of the Federation. The shortfall is attributed to persistent issues of crude oil theft, low sector investment, and the financial burden of petroleum subsidy deductions.

The comprehensive Q4 2024 budget implementation report reveals that the government recorded a net oil revenue that was 21.12 percent below its expected quarterly target. The official statement from the Budget Office detailed the precise figures:

“The inflow was lower than the ₦3,988.29 billion net oil revenue recorded in the third quarter of 2024 by ₦639.03 billion (16.02 percent) but higher than the ₦2,414.22 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023 by ₦1,574.07 billion (65.20 percent) respectively.”

The Budget Office explicitly pointed to a combination of factors for the underperformance, including a decline in oil production and lifting, low investment across the sector, and the continued high fiscal deductions associated with the government’s petroleum subsidy policy.

In terms of gross receipts, the report stated that gross oil revenue stood at ₦3.9 trillion for the quarter, reflecting a 21.82 percent shortfall compared to the prorated quarterly budget estimate. This figure was N714.61 billion (15.46 percent) lower than the N4.623 trillion generated in Q3 2024.

A detailed analysis of the revenue streams showed mixed results, with some components exceeding expectations while key segments suffered major declines:

“A breakdown of the oil revenue performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that, Royalties (Oil & Gas) of ₦2,184.64 billion, Concessional Rentals of ₦5.59 billion and Miscellaneous (Pipeline fees etc.) of ₦8.79 billion exceeded their quarterly estimate of ₦1,605.90 billion, ₦2.18 billion and ₦4.02 billion by ₦578.73 billion (36.04 percent), ₦3.41 billion (156.15 percent) and ₦4.77 billion (118.48 percent) respectively,” the report reads.

However, the major revenue sources—Crude Oil and Gas Sales and Petroleum Profit and Gas Taxes—fell substantially short of their quarterly projections. Cumulatively, total gross oil revenue collected for the entire 2024 fiscal year reached N15,066.95 billion, falling 24.65 percent below the N19,996.33 billion projected in the national budget.