Economic analysts have warned that much of the current discussion on Nigeria’s fiscal performance under Tinubunomics is based on misleading arithmetic rather than proper economic analysis, according to Tanimu Yakubu.

They noted that large headline figures—ranging from ₦150 trillion to ₦180 trillion—often conflate revenue, cash, and borrowing, creating an “arithmetic illusion.” Analysts stressed that borrowing is financing, not income, and federal budget reality depends on retained revenue, not gross federation-wide inflows.

Common misinterpretations include double-counting oil and customs revenues, treating borrowing as free cash, and presenting subsidy savings as immediately spendable, when in reality, such reforms gradually reduce fiscal drains and improve budgeting. Exchange-rate adjustments in debt figures also create misleading impressions of fresh borrowing.

Experts emphasized that Tinubunomics is a structural fiscal reset, focusing on restoring price signals, strengthening revenue administration, and protecting vulnerable citizens, rather than delivering instant abundance.

They advised that government performance should be evaluated based on federal retained revenue, clear separation of financing, expenditure tracking, and tangible outputs such as roads, schools, clinics, and infrastructure development.

Analysis by Tanimu Yakubu