As the Vatican prepares for the conclave set to begin this week, speculation continues to swirl around who might succeed Pope Francis. With no official campaigning, no candidate list, and the process steeped in secrecy, talk of a potential successor remains highly speculative. However, Church watchers and insiders have identified several prominent cardinals—known as papabili—who are widely considered frontrunners. Here are 15 possible contenders, grouped by region:
ITALY
1. Pietro Parolin (70) – Secretary of State, Vatican
Widely considered the leading candidate, Parolin has been Pope Francis’s top aide for nearly his entire pontificate. Fluent in several languages, he is known for his diplomatic finesse and role in the Vatican’s controversial 2018 agreement with China.
2. Pierbattista Pizzaballa (60) – Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem
A Franciscan and the highest-ranking Catholic in the Middle East, Pizzaballa was elevated to cardinal in 2023. Known for his peace efforts during regional conflicts, he led Christmas Mass in both Gaza and Jerusalem during the 2024 Israel-Hamas war.
3. Matteo Maria Zuppi (69) – Archbishop of Bologna
A respected Vatican diplomat and peace envoy to Ukraine, Zuppi is beloved for his grassroots activism and compassionate stance on migrants and LGBTQ Catholics. He has led Italy’s bishops since 2022.
4. Claudio Gugerotti (69) – Prefect of the Dicastery for Eastern Churches
An academic and diplomatic expert in Eastern Christianity, Gugerotti has held ambassadorial roles in Ukraine and the Caucasus. He avoids controversy and was made a cardinal in 2023.
EUROPE
5. Jean-Marc Aveline (France, 66) – Archbishop of Marseille
Born in Algeria and now a key voice in interfaith dialogue, Aveline promotes compassion for migrants and has gained attention for his intellectual depth and pastoral humility.
6. Anders Arborelius (Sweden, 75) – Bishop of Stockholm
Sweden’s first cardinal and a Catholic convert, Arborelius defends traditional Church teachings while advocating a welcoming approach toward migrants.
7. Mario Grech (Malta, 68) – Bishop Emeritus of Gozo
Seen as a bridge-builder, Grech led the Synod of Bishops and supports Francis’s efforts to open dialogue on complex Church issues, including the role of women and remarried divorcees.
8. Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72) – Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest
A multilingual canon law scholar and published theologian, Erdő is known for his conservative views and alignment with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, which has drawn criticism.
9. Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg, 66) – Archbishop of Luxembourg
A Jesuit like Francis, Hollerich has deep roots in Asia and advocates for environmental responsibility and greater youth participation in the Church. He supports adapting Church structures to modern society.
ASIA
10. Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67) – Archbishop Emeritus of Manila
A charismatic and media-savvy cardinal, “Chito” Tagle is a popular papal candidate known for his advocacy for the poor and marginalized. He was considered a strong contender during the 2013 conclave.
11. Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar, 76) – Archbishop of Yangon
Myanmar’s only cardinal, Bo has spoken boldly for peace and human rights in his conflict-ridden country. He has championed dialogue and defended the persecuted Rohingya minority.
AFRICA
12. Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76) – Archbishop Emeritus of Cape Coast
Often mentioned as a possible first Black pope, Turkson is a seasoned Vatican leader who has advocated for social justice and peace across Africa. Though traditional on sexual ethics, he has denounced harsh anti-gay laws.
13. Robert Sarah (Guinea, 79) – Former Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship
A hero to conservatives, Sarah is vocal in his opposition to same-sex blessings and abortion. While seen as too hardline to gain consensus, his name continues to energize traditionalists.
14. Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (DR Congo, 65) – Archbishop of Kinshasa
A rising African voice and member of Pope Francis’s advisory council, Ambongo is known for his tough stance on same-sex blessings and his insistence that “Africa is the future of the Church.”
AMERICAS
15. Robert Francis Prevost (USA, 69) – Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops
An American with strong Latin American ties, Prevost served as a missionary in Peru and is now responsible for vetting bishops worldwide. He represents continuity with Francis’s vision for the Church.
16. Timothy Dolan (USA, 75) – Archbishop of New York
An influential and outgoing figure, Dolan is a vocal opponent of abortion and an advocate for traditional doctrine. His role in managing a major abuse scandal in Milwaukee remains a significant part of his record.